Macro attention shifts this Monday to the US, where the Dallas Fed manufacturing index and new home sales for October will be released. In the eurozone, the ECB publishes the survey on access to financing for companies and the President of the ECB, Chirstine Lagarde, intervenes before the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament.
The New York Stock Exchange reopens normally after the Thanksgiving holidays, and after the apparent flop of Black Friday, Cyber Monday is celebrated.
Back in the Eurozone, the week will begin with the publication of the variation in German retail sales for October, which is expected to continue the downward trend that Europe’s locomotive has shown in recent months, due to the weakness it has been showing lately as a result of the rise in the price of natural gas and the slowdown in world trade.
Later, we will know the GFK Consumer Confidence of Germany. In line with the situation of weakness in the economic activity of the European power, pessimism is expected to continue in the month of December, without a priori data to improve this situation.
Next, we will know the retail sales in Spain for October. The Spanish economy is expected to be resilient to geopolitical uncertainty, maintaining its positive trend. In addition, advance data on the year-on-year variation in inflation will be published, after its last record showed an increase of 3.5% and 5.2% in the case of core inflation. On this same day, the Italian producer price index for October will be published. In addition, the update of the OECD economic forecasts and consumer confidence in the Eurozone will stand out, which will surely be affected by the current situation of uncertainty.
At the same time, throughout the week, we will also know the CPI data of other European protagonists such as France, whose previous data also showed an inflationary trend that will have to be monitored for the future performance of monetary policy.
At the business level, the publication of results of any company does not stand out; However, the general meeting of shareholders of Caixabank and Nueva Expresion Textil will take place, together with the Mapfre dividend payment date and the Fluidra discount date.
In the USA, on Wednesday, the publication of the GDP variation in quarterly terms will feature, which is expected to remain in line with its first reading. Along with this data, we will know personal consumption and the Fed’s Beige book.
The end of the week will be marked by the publication of the PCE deflator, which could show a slight moderation of inflationary tensions. Finally, we will know the US manufacturing PMI and ISM, culminating a week with a large number of relevant references in the US macroeconomic sphere.
On the business front, technology giants Hewlett Packard, Intuit and Salesforce will publish their Q3 2023 results.
In the Asia-Pacific region, it will be at the end of the week when we know relevant macroeconomic data from its main powers: China and Japan. On Thursday, the variation in Japan’s retail sales will be published, with its latest result showing notable growth; and lacking a market consensus projection.
For its part, China will publish its manufacturing PMI, the latest data of which showed a slight contraction in the economic environment.
On Friday, Japan will publish the unemployment rate for October. The market consensus does not expect any variation with respect to its last result (2.6%). Finally, we will know the China Caixin PMI index, whose last record also showed a small contraction in line with the regular PMI index.