The week starts without notable references on the macro level in Spain and the attention shifts to the business sphere, with the accounts of ACS and Solaria as protagonists. In addition, ArcelorMittal begins to deduct its dividend. Meanwhile, in the US, investors will be attentive to the budget balance in October.
The week will begin with the publication of Spain’s CPI, which will predictably show the resistance of prices to stabilising around the ECB’s objective of 2.0% year-on-year. Thus, no major changes are expected with respect to the preliminary estimate, which, in line with the previous month, indicated an increase in prices at a rate of 3.5% year-on-year.
Next, the ZEW institute will announce the evolution of investor confidence in Germany. After a positive start to the year, the general indicator has remained negative since May, a level that indicates greater pessimism among investors. Although October showed a significant recovery, geopolitical uncertainty, the slight rebound in energy prices or the prospect of high interest rates for a prolonged period of time will limit the optimism of German investors in November.
Likewise, macroeconomic references will be published relating to the evolution of industrial production, the trade balance and the final CPI of the Eurozone.
At the business level, various companies will present their results for Q3 2023. Specifically, large companies such as Porsche, Burberry, Siemens AG or Generali. At the national level there will also be news, with the notable publication of results from ACS, Solaria, Talgo, eDreams, and Merlin Properties. In addition, there will be a general meeting of shareholders of Unicaja and Caixabank.
In the US, on Tuesday the 14th the BLS will publish the inflation rate for October, projecting that the evolution of prices will maintain the dynamics of the last two months, in which the interannual variation of the general CPI remained stable at 3.7% year-on-year and above the 2.0% year-on-year set by the Fed. Likewise, the trend of the producer price index will be known, which is expected to moderate to 0.1% monthly compared to 0.5% registered the previous month.
At the same time, we will know the evolution of retail sales in October. In a context marked by high interest rates, the persistence of inflationary tensions and the fall in savings stored during the pandemic, a contraction in retail sales of 0.4% is expected compared to the month of September. A decline in private consumption that has not been observed since April 2023 and that reflects households’ growing fears of a slowdown in the global economy.
On the business front, companies such as Home Depot, Target, Cisco and Walmart will publish their Q3 2023 results.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Tuesday the 15th will be the most relevant day of the week with the publication of Japan’s annualised GDP and China’s retail sales.